Supply Planning

Woman data analytics at computer in Kenya
Woman data analytics at computer in Kenya
Photo Credit: USAID Kenya
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Globally and nationally, the USAID Global Health Supply Chain Program-Procurement and Supply Management (GHSC-PSM) project uses and promotes advanced quantification methods to improve forecasts and provide suppliers and managers with more accurate information to plan their production and deliveries, which helps countries avoid stockouts and product waste through expiration. Consolidating supply chains from multiple countries also allows for bulk purchasing and drives down commodity costs.

Global Demand Forecasts

Our Plan team creates global demand forecasts for USAID’s procurement of various health commodity types based on historical information, public health indicators, market-shaping initiatives, international donor activities, and statistical modeling. Our experts monitor global consumption patterns and supply to take corrective steps in forecasting and communicating demand risks.

The Automated Requisition Tracking Management Information System (ARTMIS) has an integrated tool for optimized supply planning.

National Forecasts & Quantification

Our experts work with government agencies, public- and private-sector organizations, and other donors to improve demand forecasts using a variety of tools and data sources. This coordination helps ensure shipments are planned, scheduled, and monitored for continuity of product availability.

National quantification exercises inform international donor spending and ministry of health commodity requirements for individual countries.

Forthcoming are GHSC-PSM guidance documents and standard operating procedures for country-level forecasting and supply planning of various commodity types.

News & Highlights

News Article
February 10, 2017
After learning of an oversupply of oral contraceptives last month, the Malawi team completed a transfer of extra stock to Zambia, with the help of the Coordinated Assistance for Reproductive Health Supplies working group of the Reproductive Health Supplies Coalition. 
Success Stories
November 3, 2017
A somewhat unglamorous but crucial aspect of ensuring access to lifesaving supplies and medicines is having a reliable supply of stock on hand. If estimates of need are too low, then stockouts, shortages, and dangerous interruption of treatments may result. Estimates that are too high can lead to…
Success Stories
December 6, 2017
As of this past summer, logistics managers in Malawi have a new tool at their disposal that will dramatically improve their reporting on health facility commodity stock levels — bringing Malawi one step closer to the goal of saving lives through the reliable availability of medicines and treatments…

Success Stories

October 9, 2018
An HIV diagnosis is no longer a death sentence. With a continuous supply of antiretrovirals (ARVs), HIV-positive individuals can live long, healthy lives and reduce the amount of HIV in their body — which also reduces the risk of transmission to another person. Along with regular ARV use, regular…
March 27, 2018
Ensuring Lesotho’s health clinics are stocked with essential supplies is no easy task in the rugged and mountainous nation known as the “Kingdom of the Sky.” While the distance and poor road networks between central warehouses and remote facilities make physically delivering supplies difficult, the…
January 30, 2018
People living with HIV/AIDS rely on regular access to antiretroviral (ARV) medications to suppress the amount of human immunodeficiency virus in their blood — or their “viral load.” A low viral load signifies that a person’s immune system is working to keep their HIV in check and limiting…